CULTURE

The Future of Migration, Infrastructure and the Global Ageing Shift with Dr. Parag Khanna

Dr. Parag Khanna speaking at Abu Dhabi Sustainability Week (ADSW) in Abu Dhabi. Image credit: ADSW
As populations age and labour shortages grow, nations must rethink their approach to eldercare, immigration and infrastructure. In this conversation, global strategy advisor and bestselling author Dr. Parag Khanna shares his insights on what defines a ‘civilized’ society in an ageing world, how countries are competing to attract retirees and skilled migrants, and which regions are emerging as climate-resilient longevity hubs. 

We explore the demographic forces reshaping economies, the policies that will determine future prosperity, and the strategic shifts required to navigate an era of unprecedented population movement.

You've stated that a civilized country must ensure its elderly don't die alone. What are the minimum requirements – from care infrastructure to immigration policy – that a nation needs to meet to qualify as what you would call a 'civilized country'?
The elderly have many specific day-to-day and ongoing needs for which an entire social infrastructure is required, from medical facilities to nutrition to transportation. These tasks are almost all carried out by people, not robots. For whatever reason, I still don’t see enough age tech and mobile devices such as phones with larger buttons or voice-controlled apps. So we are a long way away from humanoid robots and driverless cars catering to older adults without the need for a human workforce dedicated to elderly care.

I envision this enormous and pressing need for social infrastructure being satisfied in the form of large, multi-generational mixed-use master planned communities with on-site medical facilities, walkability, food and retail and other amenities that families can enjoy. Affordability for the essential workers in such communities – whether locals or migrants – is also crucial to success and sustainability.
Speaking about technology, migration and longevity on an interdisciplinary panel at the Investment & Pensions Europe (IPE). conference in 2024. Image credit: IPE

Dr. Parag Khanna's latest book MOVE: The Forces Uprooting Us  (2021)
Retirees are increasingly moving across borders seeking better value, climate and care. Which regions do you see emerging as the next wave of 'silver destinations' in coming years, and how are they actively 'reprogramming' their geography – from healthcare infrastructure to climate resilience – to attract and support ageing populations?

Climate resilience and affordability are together contributing to ever more retirees choosing to relocate, whether to the Dominican Republic, Morocco or onto cruise ships. In an ageing world, there will be ever more such destinations as cities and countries brand themselves as medical tourism and retirement hubs such as the United Arab Emirates or Thailand. The policy shift has been to recognise older adults not as a burden but as investors willing to commit their savings to locations that offer them a stable retirement.

"The peak is already well underway. Unless you are in Africa or South Asia, you’re basically living in a region that has already reached – or passed – its demographic peak, where population growth is mostly accounted for by immigration. So the great migration is already happening and it is accelerating. It’s driven to some degree by supply and demand, though not free movement of people. Migrants are choosing destinations and destinations are choosing migrants. Ultimately, the winning countries will be those that attract the most skilled youth. "

Dr. Parag Khanna

Given the global competition for young talent and the labour shortages faced by ageing populations, how can nations balance the need to attract skilled immigrants with domestic resistance to immigration? What strategies can effectively address both economic demands and societal concerns?
There is no doubt that young skilled migrants are overall hugely positive contributors to economic growth, the tax base, entrepreneurialism and other key goals that societies set for themselves. In short: immigration policy is an economic strategy. There are valid concerns about cultural integration, but that is a reminder that assimilation efforts are not merely an afterthought but should be a pillar of social policy. Such investments ultimately result in broader economic benefit as well rather than producing an unassimilated underclass.

You've predicted we'll hit 'peak humanity' imminently - and earlier than previously thought - followed by what you call an unprecedented 'giant reshuffling' of the 8 billion of us. How do you envision this demographic peak and subsequent migration reshaping global economic and political landscapes? 
The peak is already well underway. Unless you are in Africa or South Asia, you’re basically living in a region that has already reached – or passed – its demographic peak, where population growth is mostly accounted for by immigration. So the great migration is already happening and it is accelerating. It’s driven to some degree by supply and demand, though not free movement of people. Migrants are choosing destinations and destinations are choosing migrants. Ultimately, the winning countries will be those that attract the most skilled youth. 
“Most migration takes place within regions or between adjacent regions. The largest migrant stock is among the former Soviet republics, followed by the South Asian population in the Gulf countries." Dr. Parag Khanna. Image credit: International Organization for Migration, McKinsey & Co., OECD, United Nations, World Bank

Delivering a keynote at SIAS's Corporate Governance Week, alongside Minister Chee Hong Tat, advocating for the use of AI to future-proof the financial industry against physical climate risks. Image credit: Securities Investors Association (Singapore)
With climate migration being inevitable, in your view which regions might emerge as 'climate-resilient care zones' where both environmental stability and quality eldercare converge?
There are many climate resilient zones in the world, but only some of them have seized the opportunity to strategically focus on attracting older adults. Mexico, Thailand, Japan and Australia already stand out, and the evidence is the growing number of dedicated retirement communities they have built. I believe numerous other countries will follow suit, creating an active marketplace for older populations to choose from. 
At Bryan Johnson's 'Where to Not Die' summit, you highlighted Singapore as a model for future-proofing. Are there places emerging that might combine Singapore's infrastructure advantages with more accessible cost structures to become the next generation of longevity hubs?
Most certainly. Both Bali and Lombok in Indonesia, for example, have become long-term locations in which retirees have settled. It is crucial for the host country to have an adequately trained medical workforce of doctors, nurses and healthcare professionals, an efficient, low-cost infrastructure, and ideally incorporate the latest technologies related to diagnostics and treatment. As the costs of these tools come down, the cost of delivering care will as well. 
Dr.​​ Parag Khanna is a leading global strategy advisor, world traveller and best-selling author. He is Founder and CEO of AlphaGeo, an AI-powered geospatial analytics platform. Parag's latest book is MOVE: The Forces Uprooting Us (2021) which was preceded by The Future is Asian: Commerce, Conflict & Culture in the 21st Century (2019) among several others. Parag was named one of Esquire’s “75 Most Influential People of the 21st Century,” and featured in WIRED magazine’s “Smart List.” He holds a PhD from the London School of Economics, and Bachelors and Masters degrees from the School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University. He has travelled to more than 150 countries and is a Young Global Leader of the World Economic Forum.
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